Sydney Auction Clearance Rates: How to Read Them in 2026

Sydney Auction Clearance Rates: How to Read Them in 2026

Sydney’s auction clearance rate is the share of reported weekend auctions that end in a sale, and in 2026 it has been weak. Domain’s preliminary figure for the week of 18 to 24 October 2026 was 45%, against 70% at the same time last year. This guide explains how the number is built, what the recent readings say, where it misleads, and how to use it alongside your own numbers.

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TL;DR

  • The clearance rate is sold auctions (under the hammer plus sold prior) divided by reported auctions, so it is a snapshot of one weekend, not a price index.
  • Sydney has been soft in 2026. Cotality recorded a preliminary 47.4% for the week ending 21 June, the lowest since April 2020, and Domain showed 45% in late October.
  • Preliminary figures are usually revised down a few points midweek, and different providers use different methods, so never compare numbers across sources.
  • Treat one weekend as noise. Look at a four to eight week trend, then test your own purchase against slower growth and higher rates.

Table of Contents

What a Sydney auction clearance rate actually measures

Every weekend, agents report their auction results to data providers such as Domain, Cotality and SQM Research. The clearance rate is sold under the hammer plus sold prior, divided by total reported auctions.

A worked example using Domain’s late October snapshot: 885 Sydney auctions were scheduled, 499 had reported a result, 223 sold, 184 were withdrawn and 92 passed in. The page showed a 45% clearance rate, which is roughly 223 sold out of 499 reported.

Two details matter here:

  • Reported, not scheduled. Auctions with no result yet are left out of the denominator. If agents with weaker outcomes are slower to report, the rate looks better than the final one.
  • Withdrawn and passed in count against the rate. A property pulled before auction is not a sale, so a high withdrawal count drags the figure down even when few auctions actually fail in the room.

Where Sydney clearance rates stand now

The 2026 story is one of a sharp fall. Here is a timeline from the sources I checked.

Period Sydney preliminary clearance rate Source
Week of 5 to 11 Oct 2025 About 69% Domain, via a roundup of 2025 results
Weekend of 10 to 11 Oct 2026 52.9% on 431 results Capital Brief, citing Cotality
Week ending 21 June 2026 47.4% on 645 auctions Cotality
Week of 18 to 24 Oct 2026 45% (preliminary) Domain

The June reading is worth noting. Cotality said it was Sydney’s lowest since 19 April 2020, when the pandemic had shut down open inspections. It also followed 52.8% the previous week, and volumes fell 17.5% to 645.

The numbers in this table come from different providers, so do not read the gaps between rows as exact movements. They show direction. The direction is that Sydney moved from a market where most auctions sold a year ago to one where about half do not.

Where Sydney clearance rates stand now — overview diagram

What counts as a good clearance rate

There is no official line, but three rules of thumb are common.

On those yardsticks, a reading in the 40s is a buyer-friendly market. That does not mean every Sydney suburb is falling. A 45% city-wide figure averages a thin eastern suburbs weekend with a busy outer-west one.

Why the preliminary figure changes

Saturday night and Sunday headlines use preliminary results. Domain explains that preliminary rates rely on results collected by Saturday evening, while revised figures are published on Thursday. The final number is often a few percentage points lower, because the best results tend to be disclosed first.

Timeline from preliminary to revised auction results

So if you read “52.9%” on Sunday, do not be surprised by a lower figure on Thursday.

Providers also differ in method. SQM Research says its approach focuses on definitive outcomes, so its figures can differ from peers who publish faster, less complete preliminary data. Pick one source and follow it consistently rather than hopping between sources.

What clearance rates tell buyers and investors

They lead prices, loosely

In Sydney and Melbourne, clearance rates are treated as a leading indicator of price growth. Falling rates often show up in sale prices a few months later. It is a signal, not a forecast.

Volume tells you about sellers

Domain’s chief of research and economics, Dr Nicola Powell, has pointed out that sustained auction volumes alongside a slipping clearance rate suggest seller confidence. If volumes are falling as well, as they did in June, sellers are stepping back, which can mean fewer bargains than the headline rate implies.

Rates reflect borrowing conditions

AMP’s Dr Shane Oliver has described watching clearance rates as a gauge of how interest rate rises drag on buyer demand. That connects the weekend auction result to your own loan. If you want to see how a rate move changes your repayments, work through the RBA rate outlook scenario.

A low rate does not mean auctions are broken

The Real Estate Institute of NSW has argued that low clearance rates should not be read as proof auctions are ineffective, and says auction campaigns often sell faster on average than private treaty. A passed-in property can still sell by negotiation soon after the auction, often at a price you can negotiate.

Limits of the number

Before you act on a clearance rate, remember what it cannot do.

  1. It is a city average. A harbourside house and a Penrith townhouse are in the same pool.
  2. It excludes private treaty sales. Many Sydney homes, especially units and cheaper stock, never go to auction.
  3. Reporting is incomplete. Not every auction gets a result recorded, and results come in unevenly.
  4. It mixes outcomes. Withdrawals and postponements pull the rate down without being failed auctions.
  5. Weekly numbers are volatile. Public holidays, weather and small samples (a 431-result weekend, say) can swing the figure by several points.

For a decision, use a rolling average over four to eight weeks and compare it with the same period last year, since spring is typically the busiest auction season.

How to use clearance rates when you buy

If you are a buyer

When the rate is low, you have more room to negotiate and more time. Check how many similar listings are in your suburb and how long they have been on the market. Pre-auction offers can be accepted by the seller, so ask the agent for the vendor’s expectations early. Before bidding, set a ceiling you have already tested against your borrowing capacity. Our guide to borrowing capacity assessment and the APRA buffer and debt-to-income explainer show how lenders test you.

If you are an investor

A soft auction market is not automatically a buy signal. Check rental yield, vacancy and supply in the specific suburb, and read how this fits the property market cycle stages. Demand and stock levels are covered in our piece on supply and demand in the property market. Then stress test the loan: the interest rate stress testing checklist covers eight checks to run before you sign.

If you are a renter weighing up buying

Weak auction results can tempt renters in, but a falling market is not a reason to stretch. Compare buying against renting somewhere you can afford while investing elsewhere, an approach often called rentvesting, using 10 to 15 year projections rather than one weekend’s headlines. Rent growth is part of that comparison, so see what the data says about forecast rental growth.

If you are a seller

A low clearance rate is a reason to price realistically and consider whether auction is the right method for your property and timing. Check recent sales in your street instead of relying on the city rate.

Turn the headline into your own numbers

Clearance rates tell you about the market. They do not tell you what a purchase does to your net worth. WealthStacker is a toolkit built for that second step: it gives free automated quarterly property valuations, 15-year modelling that compares rentvesting with buying, borrowing power estimates, and a dashboard that tracks properties, shares and crypto in one place. Before you bid, you can model your own scenario in WealthStacker and see how a lower purchase price, a higher rate or slower growth changes the outcome.

For longer-run context on pricing, see our ABS-based long-term property projections and the ROI benchmarks explained.

A simple weekly routine

  1. On Sunday, note the preliminary Sydney rate and the number of results it is based on.
  2. On Thursday, check the revised figure from the same provider.
  3. Keep a running log of four to eight weeks, plus volumes.
  4. For your target suburbs, look at local auction results and the number of withdrawn listings.
  5. Run your numbers at a rate 1 to 3 points higher than today before you set a ceiling.

FAQ

What is a good clearance rate in Sydney?

Many analysts treat 60% as the line between a rising and a softening market, and some see 70% as a sign of strong confidence. Readings in the 40s and low 50s, as seen through 2026, point towards a buyer-friendly market. These are rules of thumb, not guarantees.

How is the auction clearance rate calculated?

It is the number of homes sold under the hammer plus those sold before auction, divided by the total number of auctions with a reported result. Withdrawn and passed-in properties count as not cleared. Different data providers may handle some outcomes differently.

Why do clearance rates change between Sunday and Thursday?

Sunday figures are preliminary and use only the results available by Saturday evening. As more agents report, the revised rate is released midweek and is often a few points lower, because strong results tend to be reported first.

Do low clearance rates mean house prices will fall?

Not automatically. Clearance rates lead prices in Sydney and Melbourne, but they are one indicator among several, alongside interest rates, listings and local demand. A city-wide number also hides large differences between suburbs and property types.

Sources

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